# Delayed sampling

Automatic marginalization and conditioning are implemented using a heuristic called delayed sampling1. This has a small limitation: it supports marginalization through chains of random variables, but not through trees of random variables. Trees are reduced to chains by simulation where necessary.

Consider:

x ~ Gamma(2.0, 1.0);
y ~ Poisson(x);
z ~ Poisson(x);

Graphically, this can be represented as:
.-. | x | +-+ / \ v v .-+ +-. | y | | z | '-' '-'

This is a tree (the most basic), so delayed sampling cannot maintain a marginal distribution for all three random variables (jointly). Instead—this is the heuristic—it reduces the tree to a chain by simulating y. This proceeds as follows:

1. x ~ Gamma(1.0, 2.0); x is trivially marginalized out.

.-. | x | '-'

2. y ~ Poisson(x); x is marginalized out, y is trivially marginalized out. There is a single chain of marginalized variables.

.-. | x | +-' / v .-+ | y | '-'

3. z ~ Poisson(x); Adding z to the graph would create a tree of marginalized variables. To avoid this, the delayed sampling heuristic simulates a value for y (now depicted as a square rather than circle below). This will break the first branch of the tree that would otherwise be formed. Now x is still marginalized out, but conditioned on y.

.-. | x | +-' / v .---. | y | '---'

4. Finally, the new node is added; x remains marginalized out, y is simulated, z is trivially marginalized out. There is only a single chain of marginalized variables.

.-. | x | +-+ / \ v v .---. +-. | y | | z | '---' '-'

Delayed sampling over Gaussian variables yields some common use-cases without explicit coding. Consider the following linear-Gaussian state-space model:

x[1] ~ Gaussian(0.0, 4.0);
y[1] ~ Gaussian(b*x[1], 1.0);
for t in 2..4 {
x[t] ~ Gaussian(a*x[t - 1], 4.0);
y[t] ~ Gaussian(b*x[t], 1.0);
}

For the purposes of demonstration, we assume both x and y are latent (typically, for such a model, the x are latent while the y are observed). We see the previous steps repeated on each iteration of the loop:

1. At the start of the tth iteration, both x[t-1] and y[t-1] are marginalized out.

****************************************** * .----. .----. * ╌╌╌╌▶|x[t-2]+---->|x[t-1]| * '-+--' '-+--' * | | * | | * v v * .--+---. .-+--. * |y[t-2]| |y[t-1]| * '------' '----' ******************************************

2. x[t] ~ Gaussian(a*x[t - 1], 4.0); Adding x[t] to the graph would create a tree of marginalized variables, so y[t-1] is simulated to reduce the tree to a chain.

****************************************** * .----. .----. * ╌╌╌╌▶|x[t-2]+---->|x[t-1]| * '-+--' '-+--' * | | * | | * v v * .--+---. .--+---. * |y[t-2]| |y[t-1]| * '------' '------' ******************************************

3. Now the new node for the latent state is added; x[t-1] and x[t] remain marginalized out.

****************************************** * .----. .----. .----. * ╌╌╌╌▶|x[t-2]+---->|x[t-1]+---->| x[t] | * '-+--' '-+--' '----' * | | * | | * v v * .--+---. .--+---. * |y[t-2]| |y[t-1]| * '------' '------' ******************************************

4. Finally the new node for the observation is added; x[t-1], x[t] and y[t] remain marginalized out, ready for the next iteration of the loop.

****************************************** * .----. .----. .----. * ╌╌╌╌▶|x[t-2]+---->|x[t-1]+---->| x[t] | * '-+--' '-+--' '-+--' * | | | * | | | * v v v * .--+---. .--+---. .-+--. * |y[t-2]| |y[t-1]| | y[t] | * '------' '------' '----' ******************************************

In fact, the operations automatically performed for this example are precisely those of the Kalman filter, without having to code them by hand.

1. L.M. Murray, D. Lundén, J. Kudlicka, D. Broman and T.B. Schön (2018). Delayed Sampling and Automatic Rao–Blackwellization of Probabilistic Programs. In Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS) 2018, Lanzarote, Spain.